2025 Primetime Emmy Awards Pre-cap

The Emmys are coming on Sunday. While I feel like I’ve been residing in movie land for the past several years and my television watching has greatly diminished, it was a lovely surprise to wake up on nominations morning and realize that I’d seen all but one of the shows nominated for Best Drama and a fair amount of the comedies too. So I guess my finger’s a little on the pulse?

With that in mind, I wanted to rundown a few of the major categories and make some insane predictions because… you never know.

A few things to note about the Emmys. Like the Oscars, they’re imperfect in what they choose. Very rarely have they completely fallen in line with what I’m watching or responding to. I doubt that’s happened with many people in any given year.

That’s because the biggest thing to remember about the Emmys is that quality will only get you so far. With all of these nominated shows, there’s not many people who will have seen what’s nominated. The people voting on the Emmys (industry insiders) are usually so busy making television that they have limited time to buckle down and see enough to make a great opinion. They’re human, and like you, voters will ask their friends what’s good and make sure to prioritize before they get to the endless list of what to catch up on.

So… this kind of makes the Emmys a popularity contest. Not only does a show have to be good, but the show has to have to have enough of an audience to garner the support to win the award. The go-to example of this for years was Modern Family, which won a billion Emmys by blending an old-style multi-cam joke output with the hip and trendy single cam mockumentary aesthetic. It crossed the bridges of comedy’s then-pillars and had a massive viewership. They rode that success for like a decade or whatever.

The other thing that’s important to note is that while something can be hot and new, once it stops winning Emmys it’s very likely to not win Emmys again. This happened with Mad Men and The Office and so many other shows. So… with that in mind… here’s some thoughts.

Outstanding Drama Series

• Andor
• The Diplomat
• The Last of Us
• Paradise
• The Pitt
• Severance
• Slow Horses
• The White Lotus

Of these, the only one I haven’t seen is Slow Horses (which I’ve been meaning to get to; just gotta carve out the time). The rest are all pretty great and I’d recommend any of them. And we don’t have to worry about The Morning Show being in this list. Thank god.

The Diplomat, The Last of Us, Slow Horses, and The White Lotus are all “happy to be here” noms. The Diplomat had a great second season (but does it really have huge viewership?) while The Last of Us’s was controversial. Slow Horses is good enough to get nominated, but its fanbase seems more dedicated than widespread. The White Lotus had its weakest season so far, and it feels like its legacy’s momentum really carried it into this nom.

Paradise might be able to pull out some dark horse win by the sheer virtue of its mystery box format and sexy sexy premise and also Sterling K. Brown being a total delight. The season itself was up and down, but when that show hit lord did it. Not sure it has the consensus, though.

Severance had an extraordinary second season, but the three years between seasons might have hurt it in voters’ minds. Still, the performances are top notch and the writing is just at the right amount of weird for people to get on board for. And AppleTV+ makes sure it has “prestige” written all over it.

Andor would be my choice to win. I’ve made my feelings on the show clear, but even now that show sticks with me. It feels relevant and remarkable and is actually about something. Tony Gilroy and his team made one hell of a show and this is its only chance to win anything. Were I a voter, Andor would get it hands down.

But I’d bet The Pitt is going to win. Like Modern Family, The Pitt is a blend of network procedural with prestige sensibilities. It’s an incredible, phenomenal show, and the one show in the last year where every time a new episode came out every person who watched it was yelling about it at the top of their lungs. They were correct. This is a show that can appeal to everyone and… man if it wins the only reason I’ll be upset is because I’d love for Andor to get recognition for the incredible work that show did.

God I can’t wait for The Pitt season two…

Outstanding Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary
• The Bear
• Hacks
• Nobody Wants This
• Only Murders in the Building
• Shrinking
• The Studio
• What We Do In The Shadows

Of these, I’m up on The Bear, Hacks, and The Studio. I’ve previously watched Abbott Elementary, Only Murders in the Building, and What We Do In The Shadows, but I’m not caught up on them. Haven’t seen Nobody Wants This or Shrinking (so I’m not gonna touch them, though I’ve heard good things about both).

There’s a reason I fell of What We Do In The Shadows. This most recent season was its last and it says a lot about how I’d been feeling about the show that I couldn’t even bother to show up for one more last ride with the vampire crew. When that same thing happened with Parks & Rec (by season six the show was still good but it also felt a bit stale) the penultimate season finale pulled me in and I’m so glad it did. Not so with Shadows. The show has always been really culty and niche. Most of the people in my circle watch it, but it’s a case of “real ones know”. Doesn’t scream Emmy win.

I fell off Abbott Elementary and Only Murders in the Building because it’s hard to remember shows when they’re on streaming services. One day I’ll probably mainline them because I really like both shows. And… hey. I could see Abbott winning, though it feels like the initial burst of the show’s popularity has waned slightly as its gone on. Only Murders is just a delightful popcorn show and a great excuse to watch Martin Short and Steve Martin bouncing off each other (and Selena Gomez) within the context of a murder mystery. Like Abbott, strong enough for a nom, but not enough for a win.

The Bear might win it, though the growing sense of category fraud (it should be with the dramas) feels like something Emmy voters have really started to embrace. Because of timelines, this nomination is also for season three rather than season four (which just aired a few months ago). That’s easily The Bear‘s weakest season. While I enjoy the show, I can’t see it winning.

So it’s between Hacks and The Studio.

Hacks did extremely well last year. And I love seeing Jean Smart get recognition for her work as Deborah Vance. This season continued the run of the show being insanely good. Even if it wasn’t the best season, it had so many good moments. Also? I really want to see Hannah Einbinder win, even though she’s in the supporting category. That is a leading performance, and these award shows should break out an entirely new category called “Outstanding Co-Lead Performances” so we can celebrate dynamic leading duos so they’re not squabbling over the same pool of voters. This won last year. It could win again.

But…. it’s probably going to be The Studio. Hollywood traditionally loves inside baseball stories and the people who make things love to see stories about how people make the same thing. It’s narcissism. But also the show is incredibly funny, incredibly episodic… and it’s the hot newness that’s good enough that it might clean up. I think it will. And I’d probably vote for it to do so.

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

• Adolescence
• Black Mirror
• Dying For Sex
• Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
• The Penguin

Bad category for me. The only one I’ve seen is The Penguin, and even then I stalled out halfway through the season but have meant to come back to it (probably this week). I’ve heard Adolescence is intense has the sort of emotional weight that might win it. But every time anyone who watched Dying For Sex mentioned it, they spoke about it with an awed reverance and a sense that it blew them away. That’s my bet to win.

Outstanding Reality Competition Program

• The Amazing Race
• RuPaul’s Drag Race
• Survivor
• Top Chef
• The Traitors

I fell off Drag Race a few seasons ago, and for years that show was a freaking juggernaut. It’s really… slipped a bit. I don’t miss watching it.

Haven’t seen The Amazing Race or Top Chef, but both of those feel like legacy reality shows because they’re good enough for people to keep watching them for years and years and that means they’re good enough to get noms.

Survivor hasn’t gotten a nom in this category since 2006 (which was its fourth year in a row). That’s insane. It’s also insane that the only major Emmys its picked up are for Probst hosting, an episode for cinematography, an episode for sound mixing, and then the requistie special class award because no one knew what the hell it was when it first came out. Regardless, the past two seasons of Survivor have been quite good and I’m stoked for the seasons coming up and if they go well (especially 50), I might be more bullish on the win. But I’m not sure it has it yet.

Because… look. The Traitors is a delightful show. It’s Alan Cumming (who just this past weekend won for hosting; deserved) chewing the scenery and wearing fabulous outfits. It’s got great production values and a castle and celebrities from all walks of life. But most importantly, the game itself is extremely simple to understand with very clear stakes in every single scene. It’s got us on the edge of our seats, and the core of the show is so intensely dramatic it’s hard to not see this new hotness winning. I dunno. I love Survivor, but I also really loved The Traitors this season even if I couldn’t stand Danielle.

Outstanding Talk Series

• The Daily Show
• Jimmy Kimmel Live!
• The Late Show With Steven Colbert

Colbert.

Kimmel has For Your Considertaion billboards all over L.A. that tell passersby to vote for Colbert.

The Daily Show has won this many, many, many times and has the fanbase to win again.

But it’s gotta be Colbert.

CBS cancelled his show because they “couldn’t make the math work” but everyone knows that’s a crock of horse shit. It was a political gift to Donald Trump to get the Paramount’s merger with Skydance approved. They offered up Colbert (who is a fierce Trump critic) and it’s just one instance of corporate greed bowing to the incompetent, corrupt, nightmarish, lying, wannabe-fascist fuckwad currently occupying the Oval Office. We’re all suffering for all of this kowtowing.

So it’s gonna be Colbert. Will probably be Colbert next year too. Gotta be.

Who you thinkin?

Those are my picks and thoughts. Could have probably gone bigger about how I want Seth Rogen and Adam Scott and Britt Lower and Colin Farrell and Cristin Milioti to win, but this is too long as it is.

So… what do you think will win and who do you want to win?